Wisconsin, with primaries this Tuesday (2), is one of the American swing states, that is, where there is no clear predominance of Democrats or Republicans – both candidates have a chance of getting the majority of votes in the general election.
Therefore, even with the candidacies of Biden and Trump already defined, what happens there this Tuesday is important, as it could indicate the behavior of the electorate in November.
In 2020, Joe Biden won the state with a difference of less than 21,000 votes to Donald Trump. In 2016, the former president managed to win with a difference of less than 23 thousand votes to Hillary Clinton.
This year, there are two reasons for concern for Biden in the state: protest votes and votes from non-white voters. Activists opposed to US support for Israel have encouraged voters in the Democratic primaries to choose the “non-committed” option instead of voting for the president.
The maneuver has already been carried out in Michigan, a state with a large Arab population: more than one hundred thousand people preferred the “uncommitted” vote to show support for Biden.
The protest was even more significant because Michigan is also a swing state. In Michigan’s most populous city, Milwaukee, it’s the vote of black voters that could make a difference.
As a result, according to a survey by the CNN network, it was shown that among non-white voters in Michigan, support for Biden has fallen, while the opposite is true for Trump: in 2020, 80% of non-white voters in the state said they supported Biden – this year, this percentage fell to 55%. On the other hand, in 2020, only 18% of non-white voters in Michigan said they supported Trump – a percentage that rose to 34% in 2024.
Both sides have invested specifically in convincing black voters to go to the polls – remembering that in the United States voting is not mandatory. The support of this community, so essential for Biden to be elected in 2020, seems increasingly threatened, especially in those places that should be decisive for the election.
