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Trump Backlash, Iran War and Latino Voters Help Fuel Democrats’ Midterm Surge

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Democrats made historic gains in the November 3 midterm elections, winning control of both chambers of Congress and expanding their reach in traditionally Republican states. (Foto: Instagram)

The Democratic Party’s historic gains in the November 3 midterm elections reflected a combination of dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s administration, economic strain and shifts in voter behavior. Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress and made inroads in traditionally Republican territory, in a result described as a “Democratic tsunami.” The outcome was attributed to opposition to Trump’s policies, the economic effects of the war with Iran, renewed support among Latino voters and the mobilization of a new generation of Democratic candidates.

The party’s gains extended beyond Congress. As results were being updated, Democrats had won 28 state governorships, including victories in Texas and Kansas, states long associated with Republicans. Although the president’s opposition party often makes gains in midterms, the number of places where Democrats reversed traditional results stood out. Experts cited economic pressures—including inflation, higher energy costs and trade tariffs—as factors that helped turn voters away from Republicans who had backed Trump in 2024. The administration’s tougher immigration policies also contributed to voter dissatisfaction.

Trump’s approval rating had fallen to 31% in October, its lowest point of his second term at that time. Frederico Bertholini Santos Rodrigues, a political scientist and adjunct professor at the University of Brasília’s Institute of Political Science, said the result was primarily a reaction to the Republican administration’s decisions. “Yes, I would say it was basically a rejection of Trump,” he said. Bertholini said Democratic victories in places where the party had historically struggled magnified the scale of the defeat. In Kansas, Democrats won a Senate race for the first time since 1932; in Texas, they secured statewide victories after decades without comparable results.

Political scientist André Rosa said voter concerns extended beyond domestic policy. Trump’s handling of diplomatic and trade relations, he said, raised questions about the United States’ future relationships with other countries and the economic consequences of possible isolation. The low approval rating also made it harder to mobilize Republican voters, giving the opposition more room to advance.

The war with Iran affected household budgets through pressure on oil markets, which contributed to higher fuel prices and costs for other goods. Increased energy costs also fed into food and service prices as families were already contending with a high cost of living. The conflict also ran counter to Trump’s promise to pursue a less interventionist foreign policy and avoid prolonged military engagements. Vice President JD Vance cited the war in his first remarks after the results, saying, “We lost because of the war.” Lucas Portela, an international relations professor at the University Center of Brasília, cautioned that the conflict alone could not explain the Republican defeat. He said its influence was mainly indirect, through economic effects, and added that the administration’s tariff policy also intensified price pressures.

Latino voters, who make up 16% of eligible U.S. voters, again favored Democrats in the midterms. New York Times projections indicated that 69% voted for Democratic House candidates, an increase of 28 percentage points from 2024. Support reached 70% in Texas and 75% in Kansas. According to the Pew Research Center, Trump’s approval among Latino voters who supported him in 2024 fell from 93% to 57%. The economy was the leading concern for 86% of Latino voters, while 64% cited immigration. Bertholini said stricter immigration policies, combined with inflation, helped push these voters away from Republicans.

Democratic control of the House and Senate is expected to complicate Trump’s agenda during the final two years of his term. Starting when the new Congress takes office in January 2027, Democrats will have greater authority to oversee the administration, summon officials, request documents and open investigations into federal agencies. Their victory does not give them enough votes to override presidential vetoes: the Constitution requires two-thirds support among members present in both chambers, a threshold Democrats did not reach. André Rosa said the loss significantly weakens Trump’s political movement and could make it harder for Republicans to select a competitive successor. Bertholini said Democrats will seek to make the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential candidacy “less viable and less appealing.”

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