Democratic Midterm Gains Could Limit Donald Trump’s Influence at Home and Abroad

Voters went to the polls across the United States on Tuesday, Nov. 3, for the midterm elections. Democrats secured majorities in both the House and Senate, in what was described as a historic setback for President Donald Trump. The shift in control could reshape domestic policy and make it harder for Trump to advance his foreign policy agenda during the final two years of his term.

Before the election, Republicans controlled both chambers of Congress, a majority that had helped Trump advance his priorities with relatively few bills blocked or challenged by lawmakers. The results could give the opposition more leverage to scrutinize the administration, conduct investigations, summon officials and strengthen oversight of the executive branch. Voters also decided control of the House and part of the Senate, with all 435 House seats and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats on the ballot, as well as governor’s races in 36 states.

The election also tested Trump’s political standing amid dissatisfaction with the economy and his handling of domestic issues. His approval rating was in the 30% range, according to the account. Foreign policy decisions have added to voter concerns, including rising fuel costs associated with the war against Iran and stepped-up immigration operations by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE.

International law attorney Clarita Maia said U.S. officials had warned allies that new military operations against Iran could follow the election, although Trump had not made a final decision. The conflict has already increased energy costs and contributed to economic concerns, she said. If tensions escalate, Maia said, an opposition-controlled Congress could demand answers about the legal basis, costs, strategic goals and duration of military operations, and debate funding limits and war powers.

Trump also said he would end U.S. economic assistance to Israel. “Netanyahu and I made an agreement to give Israel $4 billion a year, and months ago we agreed to stop that payment,” he told Fox News. Spending on military assistance and other commitments to Israel is already part of political debate, and a reshaped Congress could increase pressure on Trump over the conflict with Iran, particularly because of its cost to the U.S. economy. Maia cautioned that losing the Republican majority would not necessarily make Trump less active overseas, but could raise the political cost of his decisions and concessions.

Congressional Democrats could also challenge Trump’s approach to NATO allies in Europe. Trump recently announced the start of a process to reduce the U.S. military presence on the continent, a move lawmakers could debate. In Latin America, Maia said, a Democratic majority could create more opportunities for governments with left-leaning leadership to engage with U.S. lawmakers, particularly when their positions differ from the White House. She said governments in the region may expand what is known as parliamentary diplomacy.

Trump could also face resistance to his tariff policy, a major focus of his first two years in office. Greater opposition in Congress may reduce his room to maneuver and require the White House to negotiate with Democrats to advance some international initiatives. International affairs specialist Rebeca Lucena said the Republican loss could also affect the party’s internal dynamics and serve as an early indicator of the 2028 presidential race, including Trump’s ability to shape the party and build support for a successor.