A poll published Nov. 2 showed Democrats leading or running close in several Senate races ahead of Election Day. (Foto: Instagram)
A New York Times and Siena University poll published Nov. 2, the day before the midterm elections, showed Democrats leading in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio, ahead in Alaska, and effectively tied with Republicans in Iowa. The results point to a potentially strong Democratic showing in Senate races and a possible setback for President Donald Trump and his party in the elections scheduled for Nov. 3.
Democrats need to protect their current seats and flip at least four seats held by Republicans to secure a Senate majority. The poll found Democratic candidates leading in five states represented by Republican senators: Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Texas and Alaska. Iowa was a close contest, while Michigan, the only state in the survey where Democrats are defending a seat, showed a double-digit Democratic advantage.
The numbers suggest a possible shift in states long considered Republican strongholds. In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 50% to 43%. The Democratic Party has not elected a senator from Texas since 1988. Paxton also faced high unfavorable ratings, according to the report. Kansas has not had a Democratic senator since 1932. In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins trailed Democrat Troy Jackson, 51% to 45%.
The poll also pointed to dissatisfaction with Trump and the economy as factors in the changing political landscape. Across the seven states surveyed, 38% of likely voters approved of Trump’s performance. That figure is notable because he won five of those states by double-digit margins two years earlier. Voters identified the economy, particularly the cost of living, as their leading concern. Democrats held an average nine-point advantage over Republicans on which party voters trusted more to handle the cost of living, and they led on that question in all seven states.
Democratic candidates also led among independent voters in each state surveyed and showed renewed strength with younger and Latino voters, groups in which Republicans received about one-quarter of the vote. Republicans, meanwhile, showed signs of weakening support among their traditional base of white working-class voters. In Ohio, the share of Republicans who strongly approved of Trump’s job performance fell from 63% in June to 51%. The report also cited states outside the poll: Democrats maintained a clear lead in North Carolina, while South Carolina was effectively tied in the previous week.
The results nevertheless leave room for caution among Democrats. Polls do not always predict election outcomes: six years ago, Collins trailed in every poll in Maine but went on to win reelection comfortably. Late-deciding voters could also matter. Among undecided voters and those who made up their minds in the past month, Republicans held a nine-point advantage, according to the poll. That could prove decisive in close contests such as Iowa, where Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson were tied.
If the New York Times-Siena poll’s picture holds on Election Day, Democrats would exceed their target of flipping four Republican seats and could reshape the balance of power in Washington. The result will depend on whether voter frustration over the economy and Trump’s standing translates into votes.
